Much appreciated if you could explain on the current market share split in the US enterprise-level POS market. How large are legacy competitors in terms of market share, or restaurant coverage?
In the time that has passed since your original article have you heard any street news on whether Par has won Buffalo Wild Wings? In the breadcrumb category I noticed that Par's Director of Product Management was hired in 2021 from BWW/Inspire Brands (17+ years experience).
Thanks for the kind words. $102 is a bit below our Base Case of $125. I had plugged in a range of $100-$150, so we are on the lower end of that. I think when I said "anything above $125 would be a win", that was in the context of the total valuation they could get for that business. However, if you are asking whether I think they should have sold the business for $102 or kept it, I believe selling it was absolutely the right decision. First, this will significantly unlock the investor base willing to look at the name, once the smoke clears. Second, I think this sends the tacit signal that PAR Restaurant is ready to stand on its own, profitably. Third, and perhaps underappreciated, this opens up strategics to start making bids on PAR (don't ever underestimate how lazy strategics are...they don't want to deal with a Government services business).
So all in all, given that I was pretty confident this sale was happening, I'm modestly disappointed in the number, but it pushes everything forward and I think there was still skepticism in the market that a deal would happen at all.
On the $23 mm delta, I would say it's close to immaterial. It's about 1.5% of Market Cap/EV.
1. Management's incentives? How they are aligned in your view?
2. Risk: scaling. Assuming they win other tier-1 companies, PAR will need to add more people and it may be a challenge if it needs to happen in a short period of time while consolidating their recent acquisitions.
Thanks for the comments. The incentives are pretty spelled out in the recent proxy. Savneet is primarily paid on ARR growth and Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA. But there are more details within the proxy that was released in late April.
On your question on scaling, that is one concern we share. They have frontloaded costs to roll out Burger King, so you're seeing the costs but not the revenues yet. As they land more Tier 1 wins, that is something we will be watching carefully, to see if they can transfer some of those Burger King costs to other vendors, or if they will need to increase costs to support additional larger scale implementations.
I'll read the exec compensation proxy details. I haven't. I think the incentives are essential part of a company analysis / deep-dive. But, hey that's just me. I am conscious this is your space and I am here to learn. :)
Thank you for this detailed analysis!
Much appreciated if you could explain on the current market share split in the US enterprise-level POS market. How large are legacy competitors in terms of market share, or restaurant coverage?
In the time that has passed since your original article have you heard any street news on whether Par has won Buffalo Wild Wings? In the breadcrumb category I noticed that Par's Director of Product Management was hired in 2021 from BWW/Inspire Brands (17+ years experience).
I've been a PAR shareholder for 8+ years, and this is probably the best overall analysis I have come across.
You write that a sale of the gov't business at $125M or better would've been a win.
So what do you think of the $102M price tag?
It's not a huge spread dollar-wise, but nonetheless $23M is not immaterial to a small cap company like PAR.
Hi Kevindoth,
Thanks for the kind words. $102 is a bit below our Base Case of $125. I had plugged in a range of $100-$150, so we are on the lower end of that. I think when I said "anything above $125 would be a win", that was in the context of the total valuation they could get for that business. However, if you are asking whether I think they should have sold the business for $102 or kept it, I believe selling it was absolutely the right decision. First, this will significantly unlock the investor base willing to look at the name, once the smoke clears. Second, I think this sends the tacit signal that PAR Restaurant is ready to stand on its own, profitably. Third, and perhaps underappreciated, this opens up strategics to start making bids on PAR (don't ever underestimate how lazy strategics are...they don't want to deal with a Government services business).
So all in all, given that I was pretty confident this sale was happening, I'm modestly disappointed in the number, but it pushes everything forward and I think there was still skepticism in the market that a deal would happen at all.
On the $23 mm delta, I would say it's close to immaterial. It's about 1.5% of Market Cap/EV.
--Voss
Thank you. Much appreciated!
Thank you.
I would love if you could expand on:
1. Management's incentives? How they are aligned in your view?
2. Risk: scaling. Assuming they win other tier-1 companies, PAR will need to add more people and it may be a challenge if it needs to happen in a short period of time while consolidating their recent acquisitions.
Hi DK,
Thanks for the comments. The incentives are pretty spelled out in the recent proxy. Savneet is primarily paid on ARR growth and Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA. But there are more details within the proxy that was released in late April.
On your question on scaling, that is one concern we share. They have frontloaded costs to roll out Burger King, so you're seeing the costs but not the revenues yet. As they land more Tier 1 wins, that is something we will be watching carefully, to see if they can transfer some of those Burger King costs to other vendors, or if they will need to increase costs to support additional larger scale implementations.
Thank you.
I'll read the exec compensation proxy details. I haven't. I think the incentives are essential part of a company analysis / deep-dive. But, hey that's just me. I am conscious this is your space and I am here to learn. :)